Obama

Let there be no doubt -- Barack Obama's victory is a watershed moment in American history. Given the nation's shameful record on race, seeing an African-American ascend to the highest office in the land is striking and deeply moving. This is amplified by the fact that Obama won several states in the old Confederacy, states that even Al Gore (a white Southerner) couldn't win in 2000. Obama's victory speaks volumes about the nation's undeniable progress on racial issues. Hopefully the election, on its own, helps to repair some of the enormous damage and ill-feelings that the past eight years have wrought, at home and abroad.

All of that said, I believe that the pundits and political commentators are being too hasty in declaring that the American political landscape has been altered forever. It's important to remember when analyzing the results that Senator Obama ran during a "perfect storm" for a Democratic candidate: President Bush was deeply unpopular, and the campaign season witnessed one episode of bad news after another, culminating with the worst financial disaster the nation had faced in more than 70 years. I remain curious how Obama would have fared if the political seas had been calm, never mind if he had run during prosperous times. This is not a knock on the candidate at all -- he ran a nearly flawless campaign. I'm just not convinced that the country is now "blue" for the indefinite future. Instead, I think the US remains a moderately conservative nation which, because of the staggeringly awful job done by the GOP over the past 8 years, was starving for something different. If Obama turns out to be a great president, and he's able to solve some of the terrifying problems that the US currently faces, then I can easily see a long-term Democratic majority dominating Washington, much like Roosevelt's New Deal coalition stayed in power from 1932-52. If, however, Obama is ineffectual, and the problems remain or worsen, I see no reason that the Republican party won't be able to return from the political wilderness. A long-term Democratic majority is there for the taking. But it's not there yet.